[Cz-L] Ukrainian politics

Dear Czernowitzers,

I am sending you an article about Ukrainian Politics I just received.
I hope some of you will find this article interesting and bear it in mind
when considering how to best deal with Ukrainian governmental authorities.

> Peeling Away the Revolution
> By ROBIN SHEPHERD
> September 9, 2005
>
> An act of strength or sign of weakness? Actually, Viktor Yushchenko's
> decision to fire his entire government yesterday smacks of both: strength
> because it allows him to form a cabinet of allies rather than rivals; and
> weakness because he was all but forced to do it to answer damaging
> accusations that he was tolerating corruption in his own inner circle.
>
> We may leave that debate about the position of President Yushchenko to those
> who believe history is the product of great men. To the rest of us,
> Ukraine's biggest political crisis since the Orange Revolution should be
> understood, to a great extent, in terms of flaws in the revolution which
> were apparent from the start. Yesterday's events may not have been
> inevitable, but a panoply of factors made some sort of crisis a distinct
> possibility.
>
> The most obvious problems, of course, centered on the fractious nature of
> the democratic forces that took power in January. In explaining his decision
> yesterday, Mr. Yushchenko accused the government of losing its "team
> spirit," an accusation which when applied to Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko
> could pass for the country's understatement of the year. The charismatic,
> and immensely rich, premier has barely concealed her own ambitions to take
> the president's place as the key player in national politics and has been
> engaged in all-out warfare with other members of the government for months.
> Enter Petro Poroshenko, the National Security and Defense Council secretary,
> who has been at loggerheads with Ms. Tymoshenko over economic policy.
> Corruption allegations (unsubstantiated as yet) against Mr. Poroshenko, who
> is also immensely rich, brought the current crisis to a head, and there is
> now a real risk that the two will lead their respective power blocks into
> next March's crucial general elections as enemies rather than allies. Any
> such confrontation could prove disastrous for the reform movement, either
> pushing it out of power completely or, more likely, forcing reformists to
> make damaging concessions to supporters of the previous administration in
> order to form a new government.
>
> To add to the difficulties, such bickering takes place amid a dramatic
> downturn in the country's economic fortunes. Growth in the first half of the
> year collapsed to just 3.7%. That compares to 13.5% in the same period last
> year. Sliding growth has been accompanied by rocketing inflation, which
> currently hovers just below 15%. In a country where many people earn less
> than $50 a month, rising prices can cause real social pain.
>
> Not surprisingly against such a backdrop, public support is plummeting. A
> poll by the Razumkov institute in August suggested that 43% of Ukrainians
> believed the country was on the wrong path, a jump from 23% in April. The
> August poll found just 32% felt the country was doing well, down sharply
> from 54% last spring.
>
> The key question now, therefore, is this: Can Mr. Yushchenko and his new
> government recreate unity among the country's democratic forces, or are they
> heading for collapse?
>
> Much depends on the attitude of Ms. Tymoshenko. She is due to make a
> televised address later today and it is little exaggeration to say that the
> content of that broadcast could define the future of her country. If she
> accepts President Yushchenko's generous offer yesterday to keep her in the
> fold in some capacity or other, there is hope that the reformists can pull
> it off. But she could also cause real problems. Mr. Yushchenko already faces
> difficulties in parliament passing legislation aimed at joining the World
> Trade Organization. He also has to get approval for the new prime minister.
> If Ms. Tymoshenko opts for all-out confrontation, it is hard to see how the
> situation can be prevented from descending into chaos.
>
> But ultimate success for the aims of the Orange Revolution has never been
> simply down to events inside Ukraine. The country's problems were always
> going to be too severe to cope with in the absence of outside help. That's
> why the attitude of the European Union has always been so important, and why
> its policy hitherto has been so disappointing.
>
> What Ukraine needs, and needs fast, is a clear and unambiguous statement
> from Brussels that it will be invited to start accession negotiations with
> the European Union if the country's pro-democracy parties promise to work
> together to pass important reformist legislation and then go on to win the
> March elections. Such a statement would certainly be tantamount to blatant
> intervention in Ukraine's political affairs, but it would be no less welcome
> for that. There is also a useful precedent in Brussels's brilliant strategy
> of working with democratic forces in neighboring Slovakia in the 1990s to
> successfully promote unity among opponents of that country's former
> authoritarian Prime Minister Vladimir Meciar. Slovakia today is a reformist
> success story. Brussels must take note.
>
> All this said, the big picture in Ukraine remains one of hope and progress.
> This time last year, the country was run by a group of people who it would
> be kind to describe as thugs. The country still may have a long way to go,
> but we are at least past the stage at which opposition journalists wandered
> around the streets of Kiev in fear for their lives. When President George W.
> Bush praised the millions of people who stood on the streets of the
> Ukrainian capital last year as modern-day heroes of the democratic ideal, he
> was right. But as in Iraq, what he and his administration may have
> underestimated is the sheer complexity of the task at hand and the time
> scale in which we expect success.
>
> What we are watching in Ukraine are still the first tentative steps in a
> desperately difficult transition. We will get a pretty good idea of whether
> that task can, in the end, be accomplished in the days and weeks ahead.
>
> Mr. Shepherd is an adjunct fellow of the Center for Strategic and
> International Studies. He is based in Bratislava.
>
> URL for this article:
> http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB112621528630135752,00.html
>

On another subject; has anyone previously written to our list about the
collection of essays and stories edited and published by Andrei
Corbea-Hoisie, named "Judisches Stadtbild Czernowitz"?

Shabat shalom, Mimi

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